Summary based on the Forge Global July 2025 report

1. Market Sentiment is Improving Across the Board

The first half of 2025 has seen a meaningful recovery in investor sentiment across both public and private markets. Over 174 companies went public, raising more than $31 billion — the strongest showing since 2021. The return of IPOs, narrower bid/ask spreads, and improving secondary pricing signal a recalibrated market with greater liquidity and renewed confidence.

2. Private Market Performance Outpaces Public Benchmarks

While public markets reached new highs in June 2025, the standout performer YTD has been the Forge AI thematic basket, which returned +63.1% YTD, far surpassing:

• S&P 500 (SPY): +6.05%
• Nasdaq-100 (QQQ): +8.18%
• AIQ ETF: +13.2%
• Mag7 Index: +2.5%

The broader Forge Accuidity Private Market Index also delivered +38.7% YTD, highlighting the strength of high-growth private companies, particularly in AI.

3. AI Dominates the Private Investment Narrative

The private AI sector continues to attract significant capital:

• Meta invested $14.3 billion into Scale AI, acquiring a 49% stake at a $29B valuation.
• Mega-rounds above $100 million were closed by SandboxAQ, Anysphere, Glean, and others.
• Standout names like OpenAI, Anthropic, Perplexity, and xAI remain at the core of the Forge AI basket.

This validates the broader theme that large public tech players are using M&A and strategic capital to secure AI capabilities, while private investors are positioning themselves earlier in the lifecycle.

4. Secondary Market Conditions Are Stabilising

The health of the private secondary market has improved meaningfully:

• Median bid/ask spread narrowed to 3%, the lowest since Feb 2021.
• Median discount to last round tightened to -9%, from -21% in May.
• 90th percentile secondary premiums increased to 57%.

These metrics point to better price discovery and rising liquidity, especially for high-demand companies with credible exit or M&A potential.

5. Public Markets Are Concentrated, But Still Rising

Despite hitting all-time highs, public market gains remain concentrated:

• A handful of mega-cap tech names (Mag7) continue to dominate index performance.
• Broader participation in public equity gains remains limited, and valuations are rich.
• Q3 earnings will be critical to sustain current momentum.

Public market investors are looking for durable growth stories, while private markets may be offering earlier access to the same underlying trends at better risk-adjusted prices.

6. Forward-Looking Themes for Q3 2025

Exit Activity to Build Further

• Expect more IPO filings and listings in Q3 — Chime, Figma, and Cohere are potential names.
• Liquidity events are back on the agenda for institutional LPs and GPs.

M&A to Remain Strategic

• Large-cap tech will continue buying AI talent and capability via acquisitions.
• More reverse acquisitions and strategic stakes like Meta/Scale AI are likely.

Growth Equity Focused on AI and Fintech

• The majority of >$100m rounds remain concentrated in these two verticals.
• Investor selectivity is rising, but conviction in top-tier AI remains high.

Private Valuation Normalisation

• Discounts are tightening, but top-tier companies are again commanding premiums.
• The quality bar is high — companies with strong unit economics and growth are being rewarded.

7. Implications for Investors

• Private markets are no longer in the shadow of their public counterparts. They are leading in innovation and returns — particularly in AI.
• Liquidity is returning through secondaries, tighter spreads, and IPOs.
• Q3 presents a window to gain access to AI and other high-growth sectors before they fully reprice or exit.

For those with access, well-curated private market exposure remains one of the best ways to participate in early-stage disruption at scale.

Have a great week!