A week at NADA is usually enough to kill a few assumptions and sharpen a few others. This year's overwhelming takeaway wasn’t about the death of dealerships, EVs or the US market - it was about defensibility.

As the US Q4 earnings season kicks off, listed dealer groups are once again setting the tone for global automotive retail. The early read-across is familiar: revenues remain resilient, margins continue to normalise, and capital discipline is firmly back in focus.

This week's blog is shaped around Pantheon Macroeconomics' UK Webinar (22 Jan 2026) - full credit to their team for one of the clearest, most evidence-based reads of the UK macro backdrop I've seen in a while.

Venture capital didn’t recover in 2025. It split in two. One-half got $100M rounds, soaring valuations, and an infinite runway. The other half got ghosted.

As 2025 closed, the landscape settled into an uneasy equilibrium. Inflation slowed, and interest rates edged down, helping markets regain their footing, yet confidence remained fragile.

Markets didn’t crash. Growth didn’t surge. Instead, 2025 became a proving ground: a test of who could absorb uncertainty, reallocate decisively, and keep moving while others waited for perfect clarity.